Recession and The 12/24 Marketing Plan-Part 1

Our 12 - 24 Month Marketing Window
To Make Your Business Bullet Proof and
Create Your Own ATM Cash Machine

Those of you who were at our monthly No BS Marketing PowerCircle last Tuesday will remember that I gave a presentation on the coming economic challenges, what to expect, and secret strategies to grow your business in challenging economy.

I made this challenge to the group: "You've got about 12 - 24 months." That's all the time you have to turn your business into the bright shinning castle on the hill rather than the scrambling beggar on the corner of a downwardly correcting economy.

Because of time constraints, I wasn't able to give the complete presentation. So I am taking the next couple of weeks on my BLOG to present an economic reality check and significant growth strategy. Every couple of days I'll post another continuation of the article on this BLOG.

If you'd like to keep up and read the entire research and strategy, in the right column there's a "Subscribe Now" section. From here, you can create a link to any of the following: iGoogle page, MyYahoo page or MyAOL page on your web browser that will tell you when each new article is posted.

If you don't have an iGoogle, MyYahoo or MyAOL on your web browser, click one of the choices in the "Subscribe Now" section and it will create one for you. I use iGoogle, mainly because I also use the Google browser tool bar.

I also have an article here on my BLOG explaining what these browser windows are and why you might use one. http://www.directmarketingstrategiesrx.com/2008/12/subscribing-to-blog.html

Preparation trumps skill in most all cases and especially right now. I want you to be prepared, so I'll explain what's happening and go over the key strategies to make your business the shining light of optimism and success in your industry even in troubling economic times.

Okay, let's start.
Many in the press, capital hill, wall street, economists are predicting an immediate recession. What do you think?

I read a lot of information from economists and so called experts. One of the people that I have found to be the most thorough and most accurate is Howard S. Dent. He has had uncanny success at predicting economic trends over the last 30 years. He's the author of "The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010" and a new book coming out in January: "The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History."

I would definitely recommend reading these.

His writing and predictions hit home with me because I've lived through 4 minor and major recessions in my life. Here's what he's researched and I believe. Our economy goes through 39-40 year peak cycles, 1929, 1968, and now somewhere in 2008 - 2009. These are driven mostly by generational (population) peaks in spending. The Baby boomer spending peak is coming to an end over the next one to two years.

Commodity Cycles - 29-30 Years Long
Commodity cycles/technology cycles and now Oil price cycles peak every 29 - 30 years. 1920, 1951, 1980 and now many expect oil commodity prices to peak in late 2009 - 2010. These are also driven by demographic changes. The one affecting this cycle is the massive baby boom population moving through the economy. That amounts to 1/3rd of the population yet only takes up 18 years of the normal 79 year life span. The baby boom population is at the end of its peak spending years.

Their spending for durable goods which drives economy booms is tailing off drastically. They aren't buying as many cars, refrigerators, washing machines, bread makers and toasters, any more, because they've got what they need already.

The government is going to step in and try to apply financial stimulus but it's probably going to have an effect much like what happened in the early 1980s when we had a similar down turn. In 1980-81, the government stepped in and applied financial stimulus to the economy. Things got better for a couple of years then we lapsed into a significantly deeper down turn in 1983. At about the same time oil prices went in the tank. They plummeted to $5 a barrel. Of course that's unheard of now.

Personal Story of Experiencing Cycle Caused Recession
We experienced this deep recession personally. Linda bought a house for her and her kids (Aaron and Stephanie) in Houston, TX, in 1983 the year before we got married. She thought the government stimulus was really going to work. It was a nice little 1,500 sq. ft., 3 bedroom 2 bath house. She paid $69,000 for the house but the best mortgage interest rate available was 11 1/2%, and . . . she had a great credit rating. Can you imagine paying 11.5% for a mortgage.

Two years later the house appraised for $43,000 after the oil industry drop and the government intervention in the economy dropped house values significantly. The economy in Houston was almost totally dependent on the oil industry. Over half of our oil equipment manufacturing plants closed. Our Texas bank holding companies started losing money and were eventually bought out by large east coast bank conglomerates.

PC Computer Technology Cycle Peaking
In the early 1980s, as one technology cycle peaked, we had a new technology cycle start-up in the personal computer industry. But with the 30 year cycle, it has now reached it's peak and demand for computers and the introduction of new better technologies is peaking and starting to slow down. The Oil commodities are about to do the same thing again.

Are you beginning to see that this is a historical cycle that by definition just keeps happening?

The United States now has two key cycles that are peaking around the same time. That hasn't happened in a long time. You can expect this to cause a deeper drop in our economy than the normal recessionary period. But there is great hope for people who are studying and implementing marketing and advertising strategies with us.

I'll post Part 2 of this multi-part series early next week:
"So Where Are We Going To Find Clients/Customers/Patients"