As I posted last week (December 12), there's a perfect storm coming in our economy. What I'm discussing here is not a DOOM AND GLOOM report. It is a reality, that when we prepare and take action, gives us as business owner marketers a significant opportunity to create new wealth. Understanding is the first step to opportunity. Action is the one that "Shows Me The Money."
One key premise I manage my life and business by is this: Things are never as good .... or bad as the Media makes it out to be. I probably ought to make that into a banner to display at our meetings.
The media is about creating extremes. Extremes sell stories. So you can almost always discount what you hear. Or, better yet, stop listening. Turn it off. You and I don't make decisions in extremes.
The history of the US economy goes through approximately 40-year low-to-peak cycles. At the end of a 40-year cycle our economy drops off significantly. These cycles are usually created by population growth and generational cycles. The start of this last cycle was 1969-1970, just about 40 years ago (as the baby boom generation started entering adulthood).
We also have (approximately) 30-year low to peak Commodity Cycles. The most prominent one we see today is energy prices and the recent peaking technology cycle of computers. Both of these have peaked or are peaking in the next two years. Almost all of life is driven by cycles. These are just two that affect the economy.
Both the 40 year and the 30 year cycles are peaking right now or over the next 12 to 24 months. This hasn't happened in over 100 years. A perfect economic storm is coming.
I don't believe we are quite there yet like the media is saying. I think we are going to get another small run up in the economy in 2009 and another possibly big run up in the oil commodity prices.
After that, the bottom is probably going to drop out of our economy. But, there is great hope for business owners with a marketing mindset like yours and mine. My clients are growing their businesses even when everyone else says the economy is terrible. Why is that? Outside the Box Direct Response Marketing.
Even in a down economy there will still be areas of the economy that are growing. All we have to do is identify where that is and target our business to those parts of the economy. Sounds simple right? But maybe not. YOU have about 12 to 24 months to work long hours and work creatively to put your business in a position to not just survive a downturn but to prosper during a recession.
If we experience a recession during the next 2-3 years, where are we going to find customers/clients that will still be spending money? Did you know that during the 1930's recession we got a whole new generation of wealth created during one of the most difficult times in our history? These were people that identified where there was still going to be a market spending their money, where there would be people still having desires and wants. The Auto industry boomed out of the depression years. The movie industry boomed in the 30's. The oil industry started taking off and did very well during the depression years.
Places like California and Texas weren't affected nearly as much as the rest of the nation because of these new industries, movies and oil. Factories in Michigan and what is now called the rust belt were building and expanding for the auto industry.
People had to buy cars because they needed to trek across the country to find work. They had to move to the city and drive to work because public transportation couldn't keep up with demand.
My dad moved to Houston, Texas during the depression because there were jobs in Houston supporting the build-up in the oil industry.
We have about 1-3 years to prepare our businesses for what's coming. That means we have to work very smart and very fast over this next year if we want our businesses to survive.
So who is affected the least in a down economy? Affluent households and businesses that are in, cater to, and supply key growing industries. People that have disposable incomes and are not on the edge of bankruptcy when things go south.
People in lower income brackets will not be able to weather the storm because they have no cushion. We have to reorient our businesses away from the masses to target people with higher incomes. We need to understand what they want and need.
If we market B2B, the people we will be selling is the business executive, the business owner who will make decisions and react the same way the affluent do because they are the affluent. We will also want to niche market to key industries that will be starting a new technology and commodity cycle for the next 30 years.
In my next post I'll discuss the outstanding opportunities offered by affluent households and affluent new-growth businesses.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
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